Films and Fiction

Summer blockbuster season has arrived. We’re already seeing hits like Lilo & Stitch and Final Destination: Bloodlines, and there are plenty of big releases to come, but it’s in July where the real test lies, as three giant movies go head-to-head for dominance: Jurassic World: Rebirth, Superman, and Fantastic Four: First Steps.

All three of these movies have the potential to become big hits, and even bring in a billion dollars. They all come from large and recognizable brands, and all have big names attached to them either as directors or actors. It’s looking like July 2025 could be one of the biggest and most interesting months we’ve had at the box office in a long time.

Let’s look a bit deeper to see how things could work out.

Jurassic World: Rebirth

The first of the movies to be released in Jurassic World: Rebirth on July 2nd. This is the fourth film in the rebooted Jurassic franchise, and the seventh overall since the 1993 movie. It’s got some credentials with it too. Jurassic Park was the first movie to make a billion, and all three of the Jurassic World movies has made at least one billion. Yes, there was a pretty steep drop off, with the first movie making $1.6B, while Dominion barely scraped past the milestone, but even so, it gives some credibility to the idea that JWR will be a massive hit. There’s also still a lot of love for the franchise, with things like the animated Netflix shows performing well, and monster movies are big right now, with Legendary’s Monsterverse raking in the cash.

I think this could be the standout hit of the month (because let’s be reasonable, Avatar: Fire & Ash will be the hit of the year), as it’s the first to release. This would allow it to have an absolutely massive opening, and the big test would come in the second week when it would need to face Superman. But even so, if the Jurassic reception is warm, it could convince more people to check it out rather than heading over to the DCU.

The film also has the benefit of an established brand that seems to know what the audience wants and delivers it. It might have strayed far from Michael Crichton’s ideas into dumb pseudoscience and dino destruction, but it gives people the escapism they want.

Superman

Superman doesn’t have the same goodwill preceding it. If you spend any time online talking about this movie, you’ll see that there’s an angry swarm of SnyderBros waiting just around every corner to tear this movie apart because it’s not dark, edgy and adolescent enough.

That would be bad enough, but there’s also a lot of skepticism about whether James Gunn can pull it off. He seems to be selling himself hard as the saviour of DC, making me wonder whether the title should be changed to Supergunn, but there’s the danger that the film won’t entirely escape current politics, or have the confidence to make Superman an unapologetically hopeful and heroic character.

Adjusted for inflation, the 1978 Superman made well over $1 billion, but that’s a long time ago, and a different ago of cinema. Looking at the last one, Man of Steel from 2013, that movie made just $670M, and with rumours that Supergunn is costing over $350M, it’s looking like the movie will need near a billion just to break even.

Not to mention the extra pressure on the film to do well, as it’s the first in the rebooted DCU. After the failure of the first DCEU, this will launch a new era, with films and shows including Lanterns, Supergirl, and Wonder Woman coming up, all of which would be called into doubt if this movie doesn’t smash some numbers. It does have the leeway of two free weekends before Fantastic Four, though it will be fighting JWR during that time.

This has the potential to be the big success story of the summer when it arrives on July 11th, but it could also be the year’s most embarrassing failure, and in a year that’s already seen Snow White and Captain America: Brave New World, that’s saying something.

Fantastic Four: First Steps

Finally we come to the last of the big three movies, Fantastic Four: First Steps, coming July 25th. This is another big release that has a lot riding on it. It’s the third Marvel movie to be released this year and will mark something of a turning point for the MCU.

It’s likely the film will feature a cameo from Robert Downey Jr’s Doctor Doom to set of the next movie Avengers: Doomsday, which will mark the introduction of the X-Men into the Marvel Cinematic Universe, and take the franchise into a new era.

The problem is that the MCU is in a bad way. Two movies have already been released this year, Captain America: Brave New World and Thunderbolts, and both have been poor performers, with box office that’s capped off well below $500M, the F4 could deliver a hat trick of failures.

Even if we ignore the 2015 flop, the 2005 movie and its sequel both came in with total hauls under $400M, and this film will likely have to rely on its association with the MCU (if there’s anyone left who still cares) to make it a hit, because while they are fairly well-known, the Fantastic Four don’t have the same appeal as other superheroes like Spider-Man and Superman.

It also has a bad release date, as it’s the final of the three to come out. ‘Saving the best for last’ and all that, but the audience might already have blown their money on the first two movies and if Superman gets a bad press, they might give up on the superhero genre completely. Of the three movies, this is the one I have the least hope for, and if it fails, it’s bound to put Marvel into panic mode for the MCU and dash their hopes for Doomsday.

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Any of these movies could potentially be hits, and they need to be, not just for the studios that are relying heavily on them, but also for theatres, that have had a fair share of flops this year (and in the past few years) and could really use the win.

The problem is that there’s a lot of overlap. None are exactly the kind of family films that can make big bucks, like Despicable Me, etc, but they are all familiar names, all are in the sci-fi genre, are filled with CGI action, and two are superhero movies, yes it’s DC vs. Marvel, but that’s not such a big deal for normies. They also all need big money to succeed, and releasing so close together they could cancel each other out so none end up making a billion.

Despite what some have hoped for, I don’t think there will be a ‘Barbenheimer’ moment, partly because those kind of crazes are spontaneous, partly because the whole feature of that was the contrast between a serious biopic about the inventor of the atom bomb, and a film about a tacky pink plastic doll.

As it is, July could see a triumphant return of cinema this summer, or it could all just end in a blockbuster bloodbath.

Which of these movies will you be seeing in July? Leave a comment below with the one you’re most excited to watch.